Abstract

This study examines the long-term financial evolution and resilience of Odisha State Cooperative Bank (OSCB) by analyzing the trends in share capital, reserves, and owned funds from 1950 to 2023. Cooperative banks play a vital role in rural credit delivery and financial inclusion in India, and OSCB stands as a pivotal apex institution in the state’s cooperative credit structure. Using time series analysis, correlation, OLS regression, Granger causality, and ARIMA forecasting techniques, this study investigates the nature and strength of financial growth in OSCB. The findings reveal a substantial and sustained increase in owned funds, particularly after 1990, reflecting structural changes and institutional strengthening over time. Strong positive correlations were observed between share capital, reserves, and owned funds, indicating an interdependent financial structure. The structural break test confirms significant policy-driven financial shifts, while the ARIMA model forecasts a continued upward trajectory in owned funds through 2028. These results align with previous literature emphasizing the critical role of internal capital formation in cooperative banking resilience. The study highlights that OSCB’s financial strength is rooted in consistent reserve growth, member participation, and sound institutional governance. This analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers, cooperative leaders, and financial planners to enhance the stability and effectiveness of cooperative banking systems. It also contributes to the academic discourse by presenting a rare long-term empirical evaluation of a state cooperative bank in India.

Keywords: Cooperative Banking, Owned Funds, Share Capital, Reserves, Structural Break, ARIMA Forecasting, oscb