Abstract

India turned its $4 trillion nominal GDP during 2024–25, crossing the important threshold on the country’s postliberalisation growth trajectory. Initial reports from late 2025 and early 2026 suggested that India crossed into the world’s fourth-largest economy club, overtaking Japan. But the February 2026 revision of India’s GDP base year (2011–12 to 2022–23) by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and the concomitant depreciation of the rupee pulled India’s dollar GDP down in the revised series. As per the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, India is the sixth-largest economy in nominal GDP (as per the latest exchange rates), with the US, China, Germany, Japan, and the UK above it, but the third-largest in GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and has been so since before 2010. This article takes a close look at factors underpinning India’s growth, revisits the ‘fourth-largest economy’ proposition in light of the fresh data, and examines India’s prospects of turning its $5-trillion economy by the end of next fiscal, 2026–27 and $26 trillion by 2047 - 25 years from now. India’s growth trajectory, as this note argues, will see its headline figures (nominal GDP in current prices or PPP) rise, but its developmental challenges - low per capita income, inequality, and vulnerability to shocks - need to be reckoned with to turn this growth into sustainable and inclusive development.

Keywords: India; $4 Trillion Economy, GDP Ranking, GDP Base Year, Rupee Depreciation, IMF World Economic Outlook, Inclusive Development, Digital Transformation, Infrastructure, Consumption, Investment, Inequality, Climate Resilience, Economic Policy, Global Economy, Emerging Markets